Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequities: a modeling study.

Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically impacted by structural socio-economic inequities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) sampled from all WHO regions. We focus on the first critical months of vaccine distribution and administration, exploring counterfactual scenarios where we assume the same per capita daily vaccination rate reported in selected high income countries. We estimate that, in this high vaccine availability scenario, more than 50% of deaths (min-max range: [56% - 99%]) that occurred in the analyzed countries could have been averted. We further consider a scenario where LMIC had similarly early access to vaccine doses as high income countries; even without increasing the number of doses, we estimate an important fraction of deaths (min-max range: [7% - 73%]) could have been averted. In the absence of equitable allocation, the model suggests that considerable additional non-pharmaceutical interventions would have been required to offset the lack of vaccines (min-max range: [15% - 75%]). Overall, our results quantify the negative impacts of vaccines inequities and call for amplified global efforts to provide better access to vaccine programs in low and lower middle income countries.

Differences in sleep timing and related effects between African Americans and non-Hispanic Whites.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Prior studies have shown a morning chronotype for African Americans compared with non-Hispanic Whites, yet self-reported sleep timing is delayed in African Americans compared with Whites. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Multi-Ethnicity Study of Atherosclerosis, a multisite community-based cohort. Self-reported and actigraphic sleep timing, chronotype measured by the modified Horne-Östberg Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire, and risk of depression measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale were examined using nonparametric approaches and linear or logistic regression while comparing between African Americans and Whites and evaluating the effects of delayed sleep phase. RESULTS: In 1,401 participants, there was no difference in chronotype between African Americans and Whites. African Americans were 80% more likely to report a delayed sleep phase (defined as bedtime after midnight) on weekdays and 50% more likely on weekends than were Whites. Actigraphic data showed similar results. Actigraphic midsleep time was delayed 38 minutes on weekdays and 24 minutes on weekends in African Americans compared with Whites. Stratified analysis by chronotype showed that African Americans with a morning or intermediate chronotype had a significantly delayed sleep phase compared with Whites, but there was no difference between African Americans and Whites with an evening chronotype. Delayed sleep phase was associated with depression, but this relationship was only significant in White participants. CONCLUSIONS: African Americans had a delayed sleep phase compared with Whites that was more pronounced in individuals with a morning or intermediate chronotype. Consequences of delayed sleep phase may vary by race and ethnicity.

An online decision tree for vaccine efficacy trial design during infectious disease epidemics: The InterVax-Tool.

BACKGROUND: Licensed vaccines are urgently needed for emerging infectious diseases, but the nature of these epidemics causes challenges for the design of phase III trials to evaluate vaccine efficacy. Designing and executing rigorous, fast, and ethical, vaccine efficacy trials is difficult, and the decisions and limitations in the design of these trials encompass epidemiological, logistical, regulatory, statistical, and ethical dimensions. RESULTS: Trial design decisions are complex and interrelated, but current guidance documents do not lend themselves to efficient decision-making. We created InterVax-Tool (http://vaxeval.com), an online, interactive decision-support tool, to help diverse stakeholders navigate the decisions in the design of phase III vaccine trials. InterVax-Tool offers high-level visual and interactive assistance through a set of four decision trees, guiding users through selection of the: (1) Primary Endpoint, (2) Target Population, (3) Randomization Scheme, and, (4) Comparator. We provide guidance on how key considerations - grouped as Epidemiological, Vaccine-related, Infrastructural, or Sociocultural - inform each decision in the trial design process. CONCLUSIONS: InterVax-Tool facilitates structured, transparent, and collaborative discussion of trial design, while recording the decision-making process. Users can save and share their decisions, which is useful both for comparing proposed trial designs, and for justifying particular design choices. Here, we describe the goals and features of InterVax-Tool as well as its application to the design of a Zika vaccine efficacy trial.

Assessment of the World Health Organization's HIV Drug Resistance Early Warning Indicators in Main and Decentralized Outreach Antiretroviral Therapy Sites in Namibia.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) early warning indicators (EWIs) of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) assess factors at individual ART sites that are known to create situations favourable to the emergence of HIVDR. METHODS: In 2014, the Namibia HIV care and treatment program abstracted the following adult and pediatric EWIs from all public ART sites (50 main sites and 143 outreach sites): On-time pill pick-up, Retention in care, Pharmacy stock-outs, Dispensing practices, and Viral load suppression. Comparisons were made between main and outreach sites and between 2014 and 2012 using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test in a matched analysis. RESULTS: The national estimates were: On-time pill pick-up 81.9% (95% CI 81.1-82.8) for adults and 82.4% (81.3-83.4) for pediatrics, Retention in care 79% retained on ART after 12 months for adults and 82% for pediatrics, Pharmacy stock-outs 94% of months without a stock-out for adults and 88% for pediatrics, and Dispensing practices 0.01% (0.001-0.056) dispensed mono- or dual-therapy for adults and 0.01% (0.001-0.069) for pediatrics. Viral load suppression was significantly affected by low rates of Viral load completion. Main sites had higher On-time pill pick-up than outreach sites for adults (p<0.001) and pediatrics (p<0.001), and no difference between main and outreach sites for Retention in care for adults (p = 0.761) or pediatrics (p = 0.214). From 2012 to 2014 in adult sites, On-time pill pick-up (p = 0.001), Retention in care (p<0.001), and Pharmacy stock-outs (p = 0.002) worsened. In pediatric sites, On-time pill pick-up (p<0.001) and Pharmacy stock-outs (p = 0.012) worsened. CONCLUSIONS: Results of EWIs monitoring in Namibia provide evidence about ART programmatic functioning and contextualize results from national surveys of HIVDR. These results are worrisome as they show a decline in program performance over time. The national ART program is taking steps to minimize the emergence of HIVDR by strengthening adherence and retention of patients on ART, reducing stock-outs, and strengthening ART data quality.

Community benefit: what it is and isn't.

"Community benefit" is the measurable contribtution made by Catholic and other tax-exempt organizations to support the health needs of disadvantaged persons and to improve the overall health and well-being of local communities. Community benefit activities include outreach to low-income and other vulnerable persons; charity care for people unable to afford services; health education and illness prevention; special health care initiatives for at-risk school children; free or low-cost clinics; and efforts to improve and revitalize communities. These activities are often provided in collaboration with community members and other community organizations to improve local health and quality of life for everyone. Since 1989, the Catholic health ministry has utilized a systematic approach to plan, monitor, report, and evaluate the community benefit activities and services it provides to its communities. This approach, first described in CHA's Social Accountability Budget, was updated in the recent Community Benefit Reporting: Guidelines and Standard Definitions for the Community Benefit Inventory for Social Accountability. By using credible and consistent information, health care organizations can improve their strategic response to demands for information that demonstrates their worth.